artin Feldstein: 哈佛大学教授，曾任里根总统经济顾问委员会主席
文章：解决全球失衡 － 美元及美国储蓄率, 尤其注意其中有关中国的部分（谁愿意帮忙翻译？）：
Reducing China’s Trade Surplus
The Chinese have achieved an enormous and growing trade surplus (now equal to 7
percent of China’s GDP) by keeping their currency, the yuan, artificially depressed.
5 Until 2005,
the yuan was fixed relative to the dollar, and since then it has been allowed to appreciate by only
about 5 percent a year. Because the euro has risen substantially more during the same period, the
yuan has had little change on a trade-weighted basis. Moreover, since the prices of Chinese
exports have fallen relative to the U.S. price level, the real value of the yuan has actually
declined relative to the dollar.
To keep the yuan from appreciating, the Chinese central bank has had to purchase not
only all of the foreign exchange generated by China’s enormous trade surplus, but also the funds
that have come to China in anticipation of a future currency appreciation.
The result has been a
rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves to more than $1 trillion,
an amount that is likely to
increase in 2008 by an additional several hundred billion dollars.
The Chinese have kept the yuan undervalued despite calls for greater currency flexibility
from the United States, the G-7 (a group of high-income countries including Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States), and the International Monetary
Fund because of a fear that a stronger yuan will cause a decline in exports that will make it more
difficult to create the large number of jobs required to absorb the growing population and the
shift of the labor force from agriculture to industry. China has agreed to move to a more flexible
exchange rate and has recently widened the daily limit in the movement of the currency,
although without actually allowing it to appreciate that much. China has also established a goal
in its recent five-year plan of eliminating the trade surplus, although again without taking
significant steps to achieve that goal.
The key to shrinking China’s trade surplus is to reduce the remarkably high national
saving rate, currently more than 40 percent of GDP. Reducing the saving rate can be achieved by
increasing both household consumption and the level of government spending on public
programs in health and education. Both of these changes would create the additional demand
needed to absorb the growing nonagricultural labor force. Moreover, an increase in household
consumption is appropriate because household consumption and incomes have not been growing
nearly as fast as GDP in recent years, implying that households have not shared in the increasing
affluence of the nation. China’s goal of achieving a more “harmonious growth” by raising the
living standard in rural, western, and interior regions and in the lower-income groups in urban
China would also be served by a pro-consumption policy.
China’s officials recognize that both primary and secondary education in the rural areas,
where more than two-thirds of the population now live, have declined significantly since the
labor market reforms no longer permit forcing young college graduates to go as teachers to the
countryside. It is also clear that health services everywhere are grossly inadequate for a nation of
rising incomes and aspirations.
China’s current fiscal condition—a relatively low level of national debt and official
annual deficits of only about 1 percent of GDP—should permit pro-consumption tax policies and
increased government spending. Even if China raised its fiscal deficit to as much as 3 percent of
GDP, the ratio of national debt to GDP would be declining because of China’s rapid growth rate.
Moreover, China’s official budget deficit figure does not take into account the earnings retained
by state-owned enterprises or partially state-owned enterprises. If that income is taken into
account, China now has a fiscal surplus.
可将本文与我的两篇相关文章（二十一世纪经济报道）一起读以比较异同：
中美经济 操戈容易探戈难全球经济需要“美联储鸽派”
21世纪经济报道 2006-03-21 14:58:32
全球经济需要“美联储鸽派”
高居全球风险榜首的当属美国房产泡沫和经常账户赤字的不堪重负
时评
特约评论员 谢丹阳(香港科技大学商学院经济学教授)
尽管美国议员不断的鼓噪，人民币将不会高居全球风险榜。正如美国联邦储备委员会前主席，艾伦·格林斯潘一再警告公众的那样，主要的风险其实在美国内部。高居全球风险榜首的当属美国房产泡沫和经常账户赤字的不堪重负。
美国在2001年的股市崩盘后,美联储为振兴美国经济而不得不大幅降息以刺激消费。宽松的信贷促使地产价格持续攀升。在30年期房贷利率平均低于 6.5%的环境下，房产市场继续大步往前走。据2006年2月14日发布的美国普查结果(经季节性调整后的数据)今年1月份新房动工数为228万户，创 33年新高。如房贷利率仍保持低位，房价或可再续升势。
至于美国经常账户赤字的重负，1977年6月，当赤字还仅为GDP的1个百分点时，财政部长Blu-menthal已不得不就此问题表态而获“唱衰美元”之美名。如今，美国的经常账户赤字已超过了GDP的6个百分点，且其国际净负债的数额也超过了GDP的20％。当投资者争相抛售美金资产时，美元的最终崩溃将导致全球经济瘫痪。
寻求解决上述两个问题的方法势在必行，但请不要指望人民币的汇率政策。从1985年“广场协议”到1995年，日元兑美元十年间升值了一倍，从200日元/美元升到了100日元/美元。同时，德国马克升值了72%，从2.46德国马克/美元升到了1.43德国马克/美元。然而，美国的经常帐户赤字却下降了不到1%。事实上，一旦人民币大幅升值致使那些低边际利润的中国出口企业破产，这将打破出口部门新增就业多年来缓解国有企业下岗问题的局面，可能会带来的社会动荡，将导致对美国出口需求的减少及美国经常帐户赤字的进一步增加。通过渐进地改善人民币汇率的灵活性从而维持国家的社会稳定，中国为全球经济的稳定作出了其最大的贡献。
解决经常账户赤字的方法取决于美国自身。伯南克在2005年3月撰文将美国的赤字问题怪罪于全球其他地区的储蓄过剩。这种指责是于事无补的。关键不在于全球储蓄的过剩，而在于美国的储蓄不足：一方面美国政府寅吃卯粮，另一方面美国家庭消费至上。美国极低的家庭储蓄可部分地归咎于攀升的房价。如果房价会以现今的速率无限期地上涨，如果美元不会在外汇市场崩溃，如果买房的首按和按揭贷款利率继续处于低位，美国家庭接近于零的存款确实是理性的。不幸的是，这些“如果”都太一厢情愿了。
跨国投资者希望见到美国对自己的行为负责及出台更为针对性的政策。只要美国的房产市场不瘫痪，跨国投资者并不介意它降降温。只要美元不崩溃，跨国投资者能应付它缓缓有序的贬值。的确，美联储正抬高短期利率来控制房产市场中的投机偏好。但是，当常规的途径达不到效果时，就得另辟蹊径。
“很明显事情有些蹊跷。”格林斯潘曾说到。长期利率顽固地停留在低位，没能响应联邦基金利率的上升。令人叹息的是长期利率之所以不上升的原因恰恰是因为美联储十多年来运作得如此成功以至于长期通货膨胀预期持续走低。鹰派在美联储占上风的时间过长了，是时候欢迎鸽派出现了。美联储应该采取的措施是遵照伯南克先生接任美联储之前所赞同的“通胀目标”架构。此外，中长期核心消费价格指数(CORECPI)的通胀目标可定在2.25%到3.25%之间。也就是上限比过去10年核心消费价格指数通胀率的平均水平略高，然而却不至于高得使公司在订计划时无所适从。伯南克先生可以就此结束这一轮联邦基金利率的上升，以鸽派面目示人。人们会预计长期通胀率将会有所上升，收益曲线也将上扬。如果长期通胀率稍有增加，美元将逐渐疲软。这样就又刺激了跨国投资者对美国政府公债要求更高的长期收益，从而结束美国政府对寅吃卯粮的依赖。
我们需要美联储内部鸽派的帮助以促使长期利率上扬，并且打破多年来的理想化的思维 ———那就是廉价的融资总是唾手可得以用于解决购买房产，解决财政赤字,解决经常账户逆差。房产市场会因长期利率上扬而趋冷。随着消费价格指数通胀率适度走高及美元兑各大币种的贬值，房产所能兑换的实际购买力将会随着时间的推移而缩水。美国的家庭最终会意识到他们需要存钱养老，或是准备面临他们的房产所含资产及其资本收益不够确保安享晚年的事实。让通货膨胀重现的风险是它可能会失控。但是美联储在将通胀率控制在一定范围内已积累相当多的经验。适度地提高长期通胀率并不一定会对长期的经济健康有负面影响。核心消费价格指数通胀率在2.25%到3.25%之间不会削弱长期生产力的提高。
鸽派做法的利处为：美国房产过热而带来的表面财富将被逐渐侵蚀；美国经常账户的赤字占GDP的百分比也会因为美元有序的贬值及国内储蓄上升而得以降低。全球经济将会更安定。